October 2025 - A Stable Rental Market

What is happening?

This winter high of rentals in Auckland peaked below last years high at 6550 in July. There was a slightly steeper decline in numbers to a season low of 5990 by September 23rd. This was below the level of September 20024... but only just. Since then things have been quite stable and do not look like getting up to the November 2024 supply peak of 6722 rentals available. But all we can really have some confidence is that the worst for landlords is probably over. However, that not to say that the rental market will get much easier for landlords anytime soon.

The next important marker to see if the oversupply of rentals will start to reduce is in Jan/Feb 2026 when we see if the influx of foreign students will have an impact. Some reports speculate that Australia making it harder for international students to apply will result in a greater than normal number of students entering our country.

Currently there are 6252 rentals on Trademe, barely different from the 6332 of 1 year ago. 1 to 3 bedrooms rental numbers are basically unchanged from last year, but 4 bedroom and 5 bedrooms available are down 12% and 5% respectively from October 29th 2024.

Rents

One bit of less bad news is that Auckland rents have been pretty stable all year. There may have been a small blip downwards over the past month or so, but that might also be statistical noise. As we know rents are a sticky cost, which means that once tenants get accustomed to a rental level they expect to pay about the same amount. We have seen a few occasions recently where our tenants are actually moving upwards into better quality rentals even if they cost a bit more than they are used to, which suggests tenant affordability is less of an issue than previously.

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‍Why is this happening?

Same reasons as mentioned in our previous update. A stagnant economy together with an influx of unsold town houses from ‘accidental landlords’ being added to the supply of available rental properties. We don’t expect this to change much until the Auckland house prices start to make sustained gains, probably over 2026 (but the election period will put a dampener on this as always). Once the property market is steadily trending upwards we expect these town-houses to go back up for sale and slowly reduce the rental property over-supply.

‍Coping with a Soft Letting Market

Generally, we have not found it too difficult letting out properties over the past 6 months. The exceptions are poorly maintained properties, as well as rentals that have been overpriced according to current market perceptions. Landlords who have got a stubborn rental should remember that December is a fallow month and that the return of the 90 day no-explanation notice clause makes taking a chance on a marginal tenant much less of a risk then it used to be.